California Fires Independent Analysis

In January 2025, a series of fires spread through communities in Southern California, forcing evacuations, burning through thousands of acres, damaging 2,047 structures and destroying 16,255 residential and commercial buildings. This tragedy underscores the urgent threat of wildfires and wildfire-initiated urban conflagrations to both the wilderness and society.

Shortly after the California fires, the Office of Governor Gavin Newsom selected the Fire Safety Research Institute (FSRI), part of UL Research Institutes, to conduct an independent analysis of the windstorm event and significant fires in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. FSRI will conduct the analysis in two phases and each phase’s timing will be shared with the public.

Phase One Report: Fact-Finding About How the California Fire Incident Unfolded

FSRI will collect a comprehensive array of data using the best available science in fire dynamics to document fire progression, state and local officials’ actions, weather conditions, evacuation activities, emergency response, and fire suppression. From this data, we will build a comprehensive timeline of events to serve as the foundation for our independent analysis. This data will be published in the California Fires Incident Timeline Report.

Phase Two Report: Analysis of the Data

During the second phase, FSRI will produce the California Fires Incident Analysis Report to provide detail on the effectiveness of prevention and alerting efforts, conditions influencing the original fire situation, attempts to stop its rapid progression, and evacuation efforts. Investigation into the causes of the fires is not within the scope of this research. This phase leverages science and evidence-based analyses with information from FSRI’s fire dynamics research, subject matter experts, industry standards and best practices, and the collective experiences of FSRI’s team. It also includes a review and analysis of state and local policies.

“Our hearts are with the people of California. And while we recognize the profound impact these fires have had, our research into WUI fires takes greater urgency and purpose. By studying this incident and learning from it, we can help to reduce the impact of WUI fires and better protect communities in the future.”

—Steve Kerber, Vice President and Executive Director, FSRI

Recent years have brought a surge of catastrophic wildland urban interface (WUI) fires that have overwhelmed communities and emergency responders. Understanding the complex interactions between buildings, vegetation and infrastructure during WUI fire events is critical to reducing the burden these fires pose to communities and resources – especially as communities continue to expand. Continued research into fire behavior and response strategies in the WUI is vital to protecting property and life.

This independent analysis of the California fires comes at a crucial time as communities seek to enhance preparedness and response capabilities following the Lahaina fire on Maui that occurred in August of 2023 (read about FSRI’s Maui Wildfire Analysis). Learning from this tragedy will require FSRI to engage stakeholders and experts who can share data and perspectives for this analysis. Integrating diverse datasets and expert observations, FSRI’s research will expand our collective understanding of WUI incidents, inform scientific advancement through the lens of real-world incidents, and confirm the efficacy of mitigation and response strategies.